The cost to purchase gold call options has fallen 15% since August 24th as Fed rate hike probabilities have swung. An options backtest shows positive expected value on these calls historically, and they may present an effective way to play this month's Fed decision for those that are anticipating a hike.
View options backtestU.S. utilities implied volatility spikes, delta hedged straddles attractive
U.S. utilities (XLU) implied volatility has risen from the 24th percentile to the 70th percentile over the past few weeks in advance of an expected interest rate hike next month. Options traders are expecting a nearly 4% move in the sector after the Fed meeting on September 21st. At today's elevated pricing, an options backtesting analysis of selling straddles delta hedged shows a 70% probability of success with a 0.32 Sharpe ratio.
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