July 26, 2016

Options Backtesting Results

Historical average return: -$735.68 (backtested over 5.8 years)
Historical success probability: 52.6%

Summary

While the options market has predicted the magnitude of Google's earnings moves successfully more often than not (52.6% of the time) over the past six years, when it's wrong, it's been wrong significantly. The few large losses from selling volatility in advance of Google earnings make the average historical return of the strategy negative.

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